Is facing a play-off in the Champions League a blessing in disguise? This is the burning question on every football fan's mind as the tournament returns this week. While some teams are thrilled to have earned a spot in the knockout stages, others are dreading the extra matches. But here's where it gets controversial... Let's dive into the story of Paris St-Germain (PSG) and how they defied the odds last season, proving that facing a play-off isn't always a death sentence for your Champions League dreams. But first, let's set the stage. The Champions League group stage sees 36 teams divided into eight groups, with the top eight teams advancing to the knockout stages. The bottom 12 teams, however, are eliminated. Those finishing between ninth and 24th get a second chance in the two-legged knockout play-off, where the winners advance to the last 16. Reigning European champions PSG, along with Inter Milan (the team they beat in the 2025 final), are among those returning. Other previous champions like Real Madrid, Juventus, Borussia Dortmund, and Benfica also finished outside the top eight. Now, let's talk about the drama of the play-offs. No team qualified for the play-offs in more dramatic fashion than Jose Mourinho's Benfica, who were seconds away from elimination before goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin scored in the eighth minute of stoppage time to send them through. That came in a 4-2 victory against Real Madrid, and Alvaro Arbeloa's team has an instant chance for revenge as the two sides meet in the play-offs. And what about the English teams? Five of the six English entrants finished in the top eight - Arsenal came first with eight wins from eight games, while Liverpool were third, Tottenham fourth, Chelsea sixth, and Manchester City eighth. That means the only English representation in the Champions League over the next two weeks will be Newcastle United, who will fancy their chances of defeating Azerbaijani club Qarabag, a side thrashed 6-0 by Liverpool in January. So, does facing a play-off wreck your chances of Champions League glory? As PSG spectacularly proved last season, it certainly does not. In 2024-25, Luis Enrique's side were facing Champions League elimination when 2-0 down at home to Manchester City on matchday seven of the league phase. But PSG won 4-2 and then defeated Stuttgart 4-1 in another must-win tie to finish 15th in the league. They then crushed fellow Ligue 1 side Brest 10-0 on aggregate in the knockout play-offs, defeated Liverpool on penalties in the last 16, got past Aston Villa and Arsenal in the quarter-finals and semi-finals respectively, before thrashing Inter 5-0 in the final. And this season, PSG are ready to take on the challenge again. PSG face Monaco in this season's play-offs, and Luis Enrique is unconcerned by the extra matches, saying his side can win back-to-back Champions League trophies. "If any team is ready for the play-offs, it is us," he said. "We knew it was a possibility that we might have to go into the play-offs. We will have to take the long route, but I don't think anyone else can be considered favourites more than us." But what about the other European club competitions? The other European club competitions also adopted similar formats last season, with Real Betis reaching the Conference League final, losing 4-1 to Chelsea, despite coming 15th in the league phase. However, it was not the same in the Europa League. Seven of the top eight reached the quarter-finals with fourth-placed Tottenham beating third-placed Manchester United in the final. So, what's the verdict? Despite having two extra matches, football data specialists Opta rate PSG's chances of winning the Champions League higher than top-eight finishers Tottenham and Sporting. Newcastle and Inter Milan are rated as having a 3% chance of lifting the trophy, the same as Spurs. Following a perfect league phase, table-toppers Arsenal are judged to have a 30% chance of becoming European champions for the first time. However, they will be wary of what happened to Liverpool last season after Arne Slot's side finished top of the league, only to then run into PSG at the last-16 phase and be eliminated. And what about the English sides that qualified for the last 16? The common theme among the English sides that qualified for the last 16 was the relief at having two fewer games to play. Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola, whose side were eliminated by Real Madrid in the knockout play-offs 12 months ago, said: "We're really pleased to not play one knockout stage. Hopefully we can arrive in March at our best. "We are really pleased to finish top eight, considering how [tough] the Champions League has become. When I started 16 or 17 years ago, the Champions League was a different type of competition than today. Every team is really, really, really, really, really tough." But what about the extra games? Even though Newcastle have to take part in the play-offs, Opta give Eddie Howe's side an 88.5% chance of beating Qarabag and making the last 16. Asked if he would have settled for a play-off at the start of the competition in September, Howe said: "I probably would have done. We didn't set out with that intention, we set out to try to qualify outright, but you take every eventuality that falls your way. "We gave everything we could to try to finish in the top eight - we didn't quite get there, so we have to go another route. We are pleased to still be in the competition and still be fighting." And what about the positive spin? Newcastle defender Dan Burn put a positive spin on the extra games, saying: "We wanted to miss the play-offs but we're looking forward to it. "This is the first time Newcastle are getting to the [Champions League] knockouts in its history so we are very proud." So, is facing a play-off in the Champions League a blessing in disguise? It might just be the key to unlocking your team's Champions League glory.
